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Syria: Country Economic Forecast: 06 Feb 2012

Oxford Economics
February 6, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6799188

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There seems little near-term prospect of a resolution to the political uprising against the rule of President Assad. The economy continues to suffer from the political turmoil and economic sanctions as well as from the global downturn, particularly in key EU markets. As a result, we expect GDP to have fallen by some 2% in 2011 with a further 1% fall forecast for 2012. Oil production has been badly hit, down some 18.3% in 2011, with another fall of 16.7% forecast in 2012. Similarly tourism arrivals fell by 41% in 2011 and we expect another 25% fall this year. Foreign investment, remittances, production and overall economic confidence have all been badly affected. Increases in public sector wages and subsidies, tax cuts and higher spending on security along with lower growth have worsened the public finances. The budget deficit is estimated to have widened to 8.3% of GDP in 2011. Inflation hit a five-month low of 3.3% in October but we expect it to rise to 5.6% this year, despite lower global commodity prices. This will reflect the dropping out of higher subsidies and tax cuts in the annual comparison, shortages of various products, fiscal stimulus and the plunge in the SYR. The current account deficit is estimated to have widened to US$1.3bn or 2.3% of GDP in 2011. A further rise in the deficit to 3% of GDP is forecast for 2012.

Syria:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

Syria: Country Economic Forecast: 06 Feb 2012

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