Russia: Country Economic Forecast: 23 Aug 2013

Oxford Economics
August 23, 2013
10 Pages - SKU: OFE5118015
Countries covered: Russia

Russia: Country Economic Forecast: 23 Aug 2013

The flash estimate suggests that Q2 GDP growth slowed to 1.2% year-on-year, well below both our forecast and the preliminary estimate.

Taken at face value, the figure implies that seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.6% on the quarter; however, we have some concerns about the validity of the seasonal filter used in the compilation of official statistics.

Meanwhile, early signals for activity in Q3 have been mixed.

The manufacturing PMI headline reading dipped sharply to 49.2, a development that was corroborated by a fairly disappointing industrial production number in July.

However, this was followed by relatively encouraging retail sales and unemployment figures, which suggest that consumer demand will probably remain the key engine of growth. Overall, we have lowered our forecast for GDP growth this year to 1.7% (from 2.2% last month), consistent with a modest pick-up in activity during H2 2013.

This should be led initially by an improvement in agricultural output following this summer’s strong harvest.

Looking further ahead, a concerted monetary easing cycle (which we expect to begin in Q3), together with firming external demand among key trading partners, should support a recovery in growth to just under 3% next year.

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