The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
The flash estimate suggests that Q2 GDP growth slowed to 1.2% year-on-year, well below both our forecast and the preliminary estimate.
Taken at face value, the figure implies that seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.6% on the quarter; however, we have some concerns about the validity of the seasonal filter used in the compilation of official statistics.
Meanwhile, early signals for activity in Q3 have been mixed.
The manufacturing PMI headline reading dipped sharply to 49.2, a development that was corroborated by a fairly disappointing industrial production number in July.
However, this was followed by relatively encouraging retail sales and unemployment figures, which suggest that consumer demand will probably remain the key engine of growth. Overall, we have lowered our forecast for GDP growth this year to 1.7% (from 2.2% last month), consistent with a modest pick-up in activity during H2 2013.
This should be led initially by an improvement in agricultural output following this summer’s strong harvest.
Looking further ahead, a concerted monetary easing cycle (which we expect to begin in Q3), together with firming external demand among key trading partners, should support a recovery in growth to just under 3% next year.