The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
In a highly unusual abdication, Emir Sheikh Hamad (just 61) has handed over power to his son, Crown Prince Sheikh Tamim (33). A fairly smooth transfer to a new generation is expected, in contrast with neighbours Saudi Arabia and Kuwait which have yet to take the step. Tamim has been well prepared and is grounded in army and security matters. Policy is unlikely to change much, but there could be more focus on domestic issues and less on regional interventions. Oil output was broadly unchanged for a fifth successive month in May, but we expect a modest pick-up later in the year as redevelopment plans are implemented. But GDP growth of 5% in 2013 will be driven by the non-oil sector, up nearly 10%. The trade surplus widened to just over US$29bn in Q1 from about US$27bn in Q1 2012. But we still expect the current account surplus to narrow in 2013 to some US$56bn (equal to 25.6% of GDP) as the oil price is assumed to weaken from Q2, averaging US$102pb in 2013 and down some 6% from 2012. Inflation remains a concern, even though the headline rate dipped slightly to 3.5% in May, largely because of another big fall in gold prices. But rental inflation accelerated to 6.5%. While the measurement of rentals is skewed towards new contracts, the rapid pick-up also reflects rising real estate prices, up over 20% due to the rapid population growth and foreign demand.