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Qatar: Country Economic Forecast: 17 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 17, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6769233

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Countries covered: Qatar

Nominal GDP data for the first nine months of last year are consistent with another strong growth performance; we still expect GDP to have risen by 16.3% in real terms in 2011. The economy has been insulated from adverse global trends by a number of factors, including rising hydrocarbon output (oil, LNG and other gas), high oil prices and strong government spending in current as well as capital areas. The self-imposed moratorium in raising LNG production in 2012-14, together with less favourable oil price and output trends, will see GDP growth slow into single digits in the near term. But growth is still forecast at 7% in 2012 thanks to robust government spending and exports focused on Asia. Consumer prices rose 0.1% in November, cutting the annual inflation rate from 2.5% to 2.1%, the lowest since July. Prices were depressed by a 0.5% fall in transportation costs as well as by stable prices for housing and utility costs. Despite the downward trend in global food prices and the continued weakness in rental costs, we expect inflation to rise to an average of 3.4% in 2012 from 1.9% in 2011. The current account surplus is expected to have widened to US$46bn or 25% of GDP in 2011. This reflects a 35% climb in regional oil prices, a 17% rise in oil export volumes and a 27% surge in gas shipments. The surplus is forecast to narrow slightly to US$37bn or some 19% of GDP.

Qatar:: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Qatar: Country Economic Forecast: 17 Jan 2012

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