The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
According to the preliminary estimate, GDP grew by 0.4% on the quarter in Q2, in line with our forecast.
However, modest upward revisions to back data, together with recent positive surprises from the latest monthly indicators, have prompted us to raise our growth forecast for this year to 1.1% (from 0.9% previously) and to 2.4% in 2014.
The recent improvement in conditions has centred on the manufacturing sector, with Polish firms taking advantage of the slightly less depressed situation in the Eurozone and the recent weakening of the PLN to increase market share.
Seasonally and working day adjusted (SWDA) industrial production in July was more than 5% higher than in February, having stagnated during the preceding 18 months.
Even more striking is the fact that there was a US$1.5bn visible trade surplus in Q2, the first such instance since records began.
Meanwhile, the outlook for domestic demand remains more subdued, although here too there have been some encouraging signs recently.
Retail sales growth has picked up noticeably in the past few months, while the construction sector has also started to recover from the acute weakness seen in early 2013.
However, labour market conditions remain subdued, with estimated seasonally adjusted unemployment picking up again in July.