The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Philippines: Country Economic Forecast: 08 Jul 2013
Economic activity across the Asia region has disappointed recently. In addition, the Chinese authorities have shown that they are willing to tolerate slower growth than previously. As a result, we have lowered our forecast both for Chinese growth and, given the implications of this for trade, for the rest of emerging Asia. However, the Philippines has very strong momentum, up 7.8% on the year in 2013Q1. We have lowered our 2013 and 2014 GDP growth forecasts slightly to 6.5% and 5.3% respectively, from 6.6% and 5.5% last month. The recent turmoil in emerging markets has affected the local stock market, down 20% between mid-May and late-June, while the PHP has slipped over 5% against the US$ since the beginning of May. Despite the near-term uncertainty, investment prospects for the Philippines remain good, buoyed by the strong growth performance relative to the rest of the region and the country’s credit rating upgrade earlier this year. We forecast that investment will grow just over 10% in 2013. Government spending will also be a significant driver of growth in 2013, for the second year in a row. Until there is more optimism about the global outlook, the administration will allow the budget deficit to widen. Given the disappointing news on global trade, we have nudged down our export forecast. However, this has been tempered somewhat by the signs of gradually improving conditions in the global electronics sector.