Philippines: Country Economic Forecast: 04 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 4, 2012
10 Pages - SKU: OFE6748140
Countries covered: Philippines

GDP rose 3.2% on the year in 2011Q3 and 0.7% on the quarter. Private consumption and investment provided support to growth, but government consumption and exports both fell on the quarter. On an output basis, agriculture was the main drag in Q3, while industry rose 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis and services grew 0.7%. Our forecasts have been lowered slightly in recent months because of the weakening global outlook - GDP is expected to grow 3.7% in 2011 and 4.7% in 2012. Early estimates suggest the economic damage from the recent typhoon will be fairly limited, although relief efforts are likely to result in higher government spending. Export data in US$ terms for October showed some improvement relatively to an extremely weak performance in September but the outlook for exports remains poor given the likely weakening in demand in the developed world. Remittances are also likely to grow at a slower rate, which will result in more subdued growth in consumer spending than in 2011. At its December meeting, the central bank left interest rates and reserve requirements unchanged. But it indicated that it might cut rates in early 2012 if economic conditions deteriorate further and the jump in October inflation proves to be temporary. And the fall to 4.7% in November inflation suggests that there may be room for the bank to cut rates.

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