The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
GDP growth slowed to 4.8% in Q1 this year, well below the 6.3% rise in 2012 overall. Exports fell sharply and investment growth also eased, but domestic demand remained strong. Some of the slowdown may be accounted for by the timing of the Easter holiday, which reduced activity in March. This may not set the tone for the rest of the year, though, as activity rebounded in April. A strong rise in construction activity and improved mining output pushed annual growth up to 7.7%. The outlook for the rest of the year depends largely on world demand for commodities. Last year 70% of Peru’s exports were minerals, oil or gas. Lower prices so far this year have affected exports. We expect demand to increase again slowly as the year progresses, but exports will end 2013 more than 5% lower than in 2012. This will exacerbate an already sizeable current account deficit. Domestic demand is still firm, supported by strong consumer credit growth and a healthy labour market. Public investment was up 15% in Q1, and the finance minister has indicated that there will be continued investment in resources, infrastructure, services and tourism. CPI inflation of 2.5% in May was within the 1-3% target range. The central bank has indicated its willingness to cut rates from 4.25% if necessary, but recent exchange rate depreciation makes this less likely.