Peru: Country Economic Forecast: 16 Feb 2012

Oxford Economics
February 16, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6824009
Countries covered: Peru

GDP growth remained robust in 2011, albeit slowing to 6.6% in Q3 from 7.7% in H1, with latest data showing 11-month expansion at 7%. In December, the central bank projected growth at 6.8% in 2011 and 5.5% in 2012, above our forecasts of 6.7% and 4.5%. Earlier this month, the finance minister stated that 2011 growth could be 7% after an uptick at end year. Against a more difficult global backdrop, the 2012 outlook may be buoyed by stimulus measures, a 5% real rise in budget spending and a potential revenue boost from mining. Despite inflation exceeding the 3% target, rising to 4.7% at end 2011, the key interest rate has been held at 4.25% since May 2011. Inflation fell to 4.2% in January and is seen slowing towards target this year. Ollanta Humala made a positive start to his five-year presidential term with the broad aims of ensuring economic stability and aiding social inclusion. But in December, after less than five months and amid social protests over mining projects, he made major cabinet changes although the central bank and finance posts were unchanged. Humala and his Gana Peru grouping also lost congressional support from former premier Toledo's Peru Posible. The controversy over mining projects may continue, but Humala is committed to boosting such investment. In 2011 mining exports accounted for almost 60% of total exports, while a rise in the trade surplus to US$9.3bn helped to hold down the current account deficit to US$1.8bn in Q1-Q3.

More International Trade reports by Oxford Economics

Country Economic Forecasts - Gabon by Oxford Economics
Gabon’s economy is estimated to have expanded by 5.9% in 2013 and a broadly similar pace (of 5.6%) is expected this year. Growth has been ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Cuba by Oxford Economics
GDP expanded by 3% in 2013 and we now expect growth of 3.6% in 2014, down from our previous estimate of 4%. Stronger tourism and ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Turkey by Oxford Economics
The economy expanded by 1.7% on the quarter in Q1, well above expectations. The growth was driven by net external trade, while private domestic demand ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Spain by Oxford Economics
Recent data show that the recovery has continued to firm in Q2, with Spanish industry increasing production by 4.3% in the year to April – ...
See all reports like this >>

More Peru International Trade reports

Country Forecast Peru July 2014 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Forecasts focus on the key factors affecting a country's political and economic outlook and its business environment five years ahead. Each report covers an ...
Country Report Peru July 2014 by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...
International Strategic Analysis: Peru - ISA Country Report by ISA (International Strategic Analysis)
International Strategic Analysis: Peru - ISA Country Report - This report contains detailed forecasts and analysis for Peru, including trade and investment analysis, economic forecasts, ...
Business Forecast Report Q3 2014 - Peru by Business Monitor International
Peru Business Forecast Report Q3 2014Core ViewsWhile we expect real GDP growth to level off at around 5.0% overthe coming years, below its recent trend, ...
See all reports like this >>

More Peru reports

D&B Country RiskLine Report: Peru by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
This D&B Country RiskLine Report will help you analyze the risks, opportunities and likely payment delays when doing business in this country. It includes ...
D&B Country Report: Peru by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
D&B Country Report. Comprehensive information for evaluating risks and opportunities when trading or investing in this country. Providing critical information and analysis on ...
See all reports like this >>



    Online Download  USD 175  
    Global Site License  USD 438  
US: 800.298.5699
Int'l: +1.240.747.3093

Share this report

    Other tasks

    Join Alert Me now!
    Receive bi-weekly email alerts on new market research

    Sign up today!