The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Monthly output data indicate the economy grew by 5.1% in H1 2013, down from the 6.3% pace recorded last year but still very robust compared with the growth seen in many other Latin American economies.
The construction sector continues to expand strongly, fuelled by an increase in loans for housing and public infrastructure projects (albeit the government has signalled that its spending on this area now needs to rise at a slower pace).
But the seasonally adjusted data also suggest that manufacturing and mining output picked up in Q2.
We expect GDP growth of 5% in 2013 as a whole.
Consumer spending remains supported by robust credit growth and a tightening labour market.
Moreover, the central bank has recently eased bank reserve requirements to lift local currency lending and help support domestic demand.
But with CPI inflation rising to 3.2% in July and the currency (PEN) having slipped over 7% since May, it is unlikely the central bank will cut its policy rate of 4.25% unless activity slows significantly.
The pressure on the PEN reflects the widening current account deficit.
Subdued global demand and falls in key export prices, such as gold and copper, led to exports (in US$ terms) dropping nearly 12% on the year in H1, while buoyant domestic demand saw imports rising 6%.
But FDI inflows are substantial (over US$12bn at end 2012) and S&P has just upgraded Peru’s foreign currency debt rating to BBB+ (with a stable outlook).