The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
With agricultural production below target due to heavy rains and localised flooding, hitting the cotton harvest in particular, the SBP has estimated that GDP growth in 2012/13 was 3.6%, in line with our forecast. We expect growth of about 4% in 2014, but this will depend on whether the new government moves ahead with much-needed economic reforms and can attract renewed FDI and other capital inflows. Inflation slowed as expected in May to 5.1%, but will start to move higher again in H2 this year. Meanwhile, the SBP again held its policy rate at 9.5% in May and, with inflation seen averaging 7% this year and the fiscal deficit now likely to be close to 7% of GDP (well above the target of 4.7%), rates may be on hold for some time. The current account deficit in the first five months of 2013 has widened from a year earlier, but only fairly modestly. However, with FDI inflows still very weak, albeit starting to rise slowly, and reserves now down to only a little over US$11bn, a new IMF deal is needed to bolster confidence. But much will depend upon the stance adopted by the new government. The elections in May this year saw Nawaz Sharif return as prime minister for a third time. In his last stint in office, which ended in a military coup in 1999, Sharif had tried to implement some reforms before tensions with India saw the return of the military. It seems likely that Sharif will try to improve policy and encourage business, which may lead to renewed relations with the IMF.