The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
GDP growth is still seen at 3.6% in 2012/13, similar to the outturn in 2011/12 but below initial official hopes of over 4%. Growth of some 4-5% is forecast for 2014-15, but this will depend on reduced political uncertainty and a resumption of IMF support needed to encourage renewed FDI and other capital inflows. Inflation slowed to 6.6% in March and may moderate further in the next two months on base effects. But the SBP has held its policy rate at 9.5% since December and, with inflation seen averaging close to 8% this year and the fiscal deficit expected to be over 6% of GDP again in 2012/13 (well above the target of 4.7% of GDP), interest rates may be on hold for some time. There was a big fall in the current account deficit in the first eight months of 2012/13, helped by continued buoyant inflows of workers' remittances, but the deficit is still forecast to climb in 2013-14. And with FDI inflows having halved in 2011/12 and reserves down to under US$12bn in early April, a new IMF deal is needed to bolster confidence. Political tensions look set to persist ahead of parliamentary elections in May. These strains are likely to continue to delay any improvement in economic policy, with the result that IMF support and FDI and other capital inflows will remain elusive. So the risks to our growth forecast remain on the downside.