Pakistan: Country Economic Forecast: 18 Apr 2013

Oxford Economics
April 18, 2013
5 Pages - SKU: OFE5027242
Countries covered: Pakistan

GDP growth is still seen at 3.6% in 2012/13, similar to the outturn in 2011/12 but below initial official hopes of over 4%. Growth of some 4-5% is forecast for 2014-15, but this will depend on reduced political uncertainty and a resumption of IMF support needed to encourage renewed FDI and other capital inflows. Inflation slowed to 6.6% in March and may moderate further in the next two months on base effects. But the SBP has held its policy rate at 9.5% since December and, with inflation seen averaging close to 8% this year and the fiscal deficit expected to be over 6% of GDP again in 2012/13 (well above the target of 4.7% of GDP), interest rates may be on hold for some time. There was a big fall in the current account deficit in the first eight months of 2012/13, helped by continued buoyant inflows of workers' remittances, but the deficit is still forecast to climb in 2013-14. And with FDI inflows having halved in 2011/12 and reserves down to under US$12bn in early April, a new IMF deal is needed to bolster confidence. Political tensions look set to persist ahead of parliamentary elections in May. These strains are likely to continue to delay any improvement in economic policy, with the result that IMF support and FDI and other capital inflows will remain elusive. So the risks to our growth forecast remain on the downside.



More International Trade reports by Oxford Economics

Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia by Oxford Economics
A new three-year €1.2bn IMF precautionary standby deal agreed in February – necessitated by the wide fiscal and current account deficits and a build-up of ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark by Oxford Economics
GDP rose by a decent 0.4% in Q4 2014, driven by a rebound in household spending and another solid quarter from investment. This pushed growth ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Spain by Oxford Economics
The breakdown for Q4 2014 GDP in Spain showed an even stronger private sector dynamic than we had anticipated. This has led us to nudge ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Kazakhstan by Oxford Economics
Pressure is building for a further KZT devaluation as the economy is being hit hard by low oil prices and the plunging Russian rouble. Moreover, ...
See all reports like this >>

More Pakistan International Trade reports

Country Forecast Pakistan March 2015 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Forecasts focus on the key factors affecting a country's political and economic outlook and its business environment five years ahead. Each report covers an ...
Country Report Pakistan March 2015 by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...
Country Risk Service Pakistan March 2015 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Risk Service is a comprehensive two-year forecasting service that monitors risks in 100 key emerging markets. It is designed for commercial bankers, institutional investors ...
International Strategic Analysis: Pakistan - ISA Country Report by ISA (International Strategic Analysis)
International Strategic Analysis: Pakistan - ISA Country Report - This report contains detailed forecasts and analysis for Pakistan, including trade and investment analysis, economic forecasts, ...
See all reports like this >>

More Pakistan reports

D&B Country Report: Pakistan by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
D&B Country Report. Comprehensive information for evaluating risks and opportunities when trading or investing in this country. Providing critical information and analysis on ...
See all reports like this >>

 

SELECT A LICENSE

    Online Download  USD 175  
    Global Site License  USD 438  
 
US: 800.298.5699
Int'l: +1.240.747.3093
 

Share this report


    Other tasks

     
     
    Join Alert Me now!
    Receive bi-weekly email alerts on new market research

    Sign up today!