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Oman: Country Economic Forecast: 26 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 26, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6784642

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Countries covered: Oman

The finance ministry has revised its five-year fiscal plan, with government spending now planned to rise by some 7% pa in the four years to 2015. The aim is to diversify the economy and improve infrastructure, but also to defuse social tensions by boosting jobs and raising spending on education and social infrastructure. Given the expected trend in oil revenues, this will result in the public finances deteriorating; we expect the budget to post a deficit of 1.3% of GDP in 2012 after a surplus of about 4.7% in 2011. While private sector activity has weakened, GDP growth is now estimated at 5% in 2011 thanks to strong state spending. Growth is forecast to slow to 4% in 2012, due mainly to less favourable oil trends. Consumer prices rose 0.2% in November, lifting annual inflation to a 3-month high of 4% albeit still well below the 29-month high of 5.3% posted last August. There were large monthly rises for personal care items, clothing & footwear, furniture & household and recreation & entertainment. But these were largely offset by a 0.3% fall in food costs and flat rents & utilities. With more favourable trends in food, gold and cotton prices, global growth weakening and a strengthening US$, inflation is expected to edge down to average 3.4% in 2012. The current account surplus is estimated to have widened to US$8.9bn in 2011, equal to 13.4% of GDP. Lower oil prices will see the surplus narrow to about US$5.5bn in 2012.

Oman:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Oman: Country Economic Forecast: 26 Jan 2012

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