The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Crude and condensate oil production rose 3% in H1, while gas output climbed by 5% in the same period. Oil investment is also rising.
We expect overall GDP growth of around 5% in 2013, after 5.5% last year.
Inflation remains under firm control. Prices were flat in June, with food and rentals the only categories showing rises.
As a result, annual inflation fell from 1.6% in May to just 1%, the lowest since December 2009.
While inflation will creep up from current levels, due mainly to policy relaxation, we expect it to remain under control, aided by broadly flat food prices and lower gold prices. Partly as a result of this background, interest rates will remain low, facilitating faster bank lending growth.
Weak spending in June left government expenditure down over 4% in H1, reflecting lower current spending.
But with revenues also down 4%, the budget was only in small surplus at OMR95m.
We expect some recovery in government spending in H2, as well as GCC aid, to help drive non-oil GDP growth in 2013. Our Dubai oil price forecast for 2013 has been raised to US$103.7pb from US$101.8pb last month due to the impact of geopolitical tension and supply disruptions. As a result we now expect goods exports to increase by a slightly stronger 1.7%.
This will lead to a current account surplus in 2013 of US$4.9bn, or about 6% of GDP, albeit this will still be lower than in 2012.