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Norway: Country Economic Forecast: 23 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 23, 2012
10 Pages - SKU: OFE6775373

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Countries covered: Norway

After quarterly growth of 1.4% in 2011Q3, GDP is expected to have fallen 0.5% in Q4, due primarily to a sharp drop in export volumes, in particular fuel exports. This suggests that GDP grew by 1.3% in 2011, below the 1.6% estimated for the Eurozone. On the domestic side, recent indicators such as retail sales volumes and industrial output have been better than expected but we still see domestic demand slowing as survey data point to weakness ahead. Consumer confidence fell further in Q4 while the PMI continued to weaken in December, with the new orders component dropping particularly sharply. Overall, we forecast quarterly GDP growth will average only 0.2% in 2012Q1 and Q2 before picking up modestly in H2. As a result, we expect growth of 1.2% in 2012. Headline inflation fell sharply to just 0.2% in December from 1.2% in November, aided by a decline in electricity prices and favourable base effects, while core inflation remained steady at 1%. We forecast annual average inflation of 1.2% in 2012. The central bank slashed the key interest rate by 50bp in December and we expect a further 25bp cut to 1.5% in March, prompted by much weaker domestic and global growth expectations and low inflation.

Norway:: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Norway: Country Economic Forecast: 23 Jan 2012

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