The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Latest data show that GDP grew 6.7% on the year in Q2 2013, up slightly from Q1 and resulting in H1 growth of a little above the 2012 rate of 6.5%. The non-oil sector remains the impetus for growth, rising almost 8% on the year in Q2, led by services, agriculture and wholesale and retail trade. But the oil sector continues to be hit by problems, posting a fall of 0.7%. We forecast that GDP growth will stabilise at 6.5% this year, but then slow to 5-6% pa in 2014-16 as the government struggles to maintain reform momentum ahead of 2015 elections and the oil sector continues to weigh on activity. Inflation was 8.6% in July, significantly lower than in 2012, helped by tight monetary policy. However, concerns about the impact of high public spending and continued costly fuel subsidies on the budget deficit, seen rising to 4% of GDP this year, plus high food price inflation, mean that there remain upside risks to inflation. Together with expected rises in electricity tariffs following planned full deregulation of the energy sector, this led the central bank (CBN) to leave interest rates on hold again in July. Lower world oil prices will cut the current account surplus to only US$4bn in 2014. But the overall balance of payments remains reasonable and foreign reserves are close to US$50bn. Rising FDI could boost both the external accounts and medium-term growth prospects if public sector reforms proceed.