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Netherlands: Country Economic Forecast: 30 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 30, 2012
10 Pages - SKU: OFE6788885

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Countries covered: Netherlands

The short-term outlook remains challenging. While December's business surveys showed some evidence of improvement in other core Eurozone countries, data for the Netherlands have been more gloomy. The NEVI manufacturing PMI for December was only marginally higher than November's two-and-a-half year low, while surveys of consumer sentiment have continued to deteriorate. We estimate that the Dutch economy entered recession in 2011H2 and it appears likely to contract again in 2012Q1. Short-term prospects remain heavily dependent on the outcome of the sovereign debt crisis, with the openness of the Dutch economy meaning it has been particularly vulnerable to the slowdown in export demand. The situation has been compounded by the weakness of domestic demand, particularly the consumer sector, which has been able to offer no offset to external weakness. Our forecast assumes that the external outlook improves over the second half of the year, laying the ground for a wider recovery. Under these circumstances, GDP is forecast to decline by 0.1% in 2012 overall, before recovering to grow 1.7% in 2013. However, the risks remain heavily skewed to the downside, with the key risk being an escalation of the Eurozone financial crisis, including disorderly sovereign defaults. Such an outcome would result in a much deeper and more prolonged recession in the Netherlands, given the likely impact on the Dutch banking system and on export prospects.

Netherlands:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Netherlands: Country Economic Forecast: 30 Jan 2012

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