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Namibia: Country Economic Forecast: 02 Nov 2011

4 Pages Oxford Economics SKU: OFE6656879

After shrinking 0.7% in 2009, the economy grew 6.6% in 2010, with mining output up nearly 25%. We expect GDP growth to slow to 3.7% this year as key mining sectors have been disrupted. And downside risks are high, with the Eurozone debt crisis posing a threat to mining and tourism in 2012. Diamonds are Namibia's biggest export but, after a rise of 35% in 2010, output has fallen this year as a result of a three-week halt after a fatal accident. The outlook for the diamond sector remains uncertain, with prices down nearly 11% since the beginning of August. Namibia is the world's fourth-largest uranium producer and, while heavy rain in Q2 hit output this year, the outlook is bright as a result of new markets in the US. Rising commodity prices lifted inflation to 5.3% in September from an average of 4.5% in 2010. We expect inflation to average close to 5% in 2012, influenced by the impact of the recent depreciation of the South African rand, to which the Namibian currency is pegged. The current account deficit widened last year, partly due to falling revenues from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU); but it narrowed in H1 this year as a result of a sharp reversal in SACU receipts and strong exports. The fiscal deficit is estimated to have risen in 2010 and will remain high due to fiscal stimulus measures.

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Namibia: Country Economic Forecast: 02 Nov 2011

Oxford Economics

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