Morocco: Country Economic Forecast: 20 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 20, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6775361
Countries covered: Morocco

Elections in November saw the Justice and Development Party (PJD), a moderate Islamic party, winning the largest number of seats in the parliament. King Mohammed has appointed PJD leader Benkirane as premier, at the head of a four-party coalition. The PJD has promised greater democracy and will try to tackle inequality by raising the minimum wage, but it faces big challenges –unemployment remains high and recession in the EU, its main trade partner and largest source of tourists and remittances, will weigh on growth prospects. GDP growth picked up to 4.8% in Q3, with nine-month growth just over 4.5%. Although heavy state spending, on higher wages and subsidies, has supported domestic demand, exports and tourism will be hit by the sharp slowdown in the EU and growth is likely to decelerate. For 2012, we now forecast growth of 3.7%, down from an estimated 4.7% in 2011. Inflation remains generally subdued, helped by government subsidies, and is expected to have averaged 1% in 2011. The rate is likely to average 2.5% in 2012. The trade deficit rose by 25% to US$21bn last year as imports outpaced exports. And despite solid tourism revenues and workers' remittances, the current account deficit is estimated to have risen to 7.5% of GDP, up from just over 4% in 2010. The deficit is forecast to widen marginally this year, but could deteriorate more significantly if the grain harvest really disappoints.



More International Trade reports by Oxford Economics

Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - UkraineWe now forecast that GDP will fall by 7.6% in 2014 and by a further 3.5% in 2015, and the short-term ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Turkey by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - TurkeyThe recovery should become more broad-based in 2015 as consumers' purchasing power gets a boost from lower oil prices and business ...
Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - South KoreaExport growth (in US$ terms) at -2.1% in November was its weakest in nearly two years, suggesting there will be ...
Country Economic Forecasts - South Africa by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - South AfricaRecent data – such as a jump in the PMI survey – show some positive signs for the real economy ...
See all reports like this >>

More Morocco International Trade reports

Country Forecast Morocco December 2014 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Forecasts focus on the key factors affecting a country's political and economic outlook and its business environment five years ahead. Each report covers an ...
Country Report Morocco December 2014 by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...
Country Risk Service Morocco December 2014 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Risk Service is a comprehensive two-year forecasting service that monitors risks in 100 key emerging markets. It is designed for commercial bankers, institutional investors ...
Morocco Business Forecast Report Q1 2015 by Business Monitor International
Morocco Business Forecast Report Q1 2015Core ViewsDespite Morocco not possessing hydrocarbon wealth, the country'seconomy will remain a relative outperformer in North Africa overthe medium term. ...
See all reports like this >>

 

SELECT A LICENSE

    Online Download  USD 175  
    Global Site License  USD 438  
 
US: 800.298.5699
Int'l: +1.240.747.3093
 

Share this report


    Other tasks

     
     
    Join Alert Me now!
    Receive bi-weekly email alerts on new market research

    Sign up today!