Malaysia: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Year-on-year GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1 to 4.1% from 6.5% in Q4 2012. Net exports subtracted 3.7% points from annual growth, while government spending was also surprisingly weak. In contrast, both consumer spending and investment remained dynamic. We expect soft external conditions and lingering concerns over the outcome of the elections in May to lead to another quarter of modest growth in Q2, before a pick-up in H2. As a result, we have downgraded our 2013 GDP growth forecast to 4.7% from 5% last month. However, strengthening world trade and solid private domestic demand should lift GDP growth to 5.7% in 2014. Bank Negara left its policy interest rate at 3% in May. While the tone of the accompanying statement was more dovish, comments from Governor Zeti suggest that interest rate cuts are unlikely as long as domestic demand remains resilient. Although inflation remains benign (at 1.7% in April), our forecast assumes that rates remain steady this year. As expected, the government won a simple majority at the general election on 5 May. This is likely to result in the resumption of government spending and new hiring in the coming months. However, the government’s reduced majority may affect its willingness to push through its reform agenda, but this is crucial if the economy is to achieve average 4% pa growth over the longer term.