Malaysia: Country Economic Forecast: 16 Mar 2012

Oxford Economics
March 16, 2012
10 Pages - SKU: OFE3876833
Countries covered: Malaysia

Annual export growth in ringgit terms slowed sharply in January but this was probably partly due to the timing of the Chinese New Year. Exports of commodities and metals slowed, although they may improve in February as commodity prices have picked up. The electronics sector remains subdued. While the stock market and the currency have rallied so far this year, the still-tense global background is likely to weigh on economic activity and, with total exports equal to nearly 100% of GDP, Malaysia is very vulnerable to weakening global demand. If the Eurozone were to sink into deeper recession, or China slows more sharply, then Malaysia's outlook could deteriorate significantly. Inflation eased to 2.7% in January but some risks remain. The central bank expects domestic demand to support growth; so having left rates unchanged since May 2011, we expect the policy interest rate to remain on hold in the coming months. Government spending picked up strongly in H2 and this fiscal boost is likely to continue this year since elections must be called by early 2013. The cabinet has approved the introduction of a national minimum wage for the first time in Malaysia's history. Although the external outlook is uncertain, strong fiscal spending and high commodity prices should keep domestic demand growth fairly robust, underpinning GDP growth of 4.8% for 2012 as a whole.



More International Trade reports by Oxford Economics

Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia by Oxford Economics
A new three-year €1.2bn IMF precautionary standby deal agreed in February – necessitated by the wide fiscal and current account deficits and a build-up of ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark by Oxford Economics
GDP rose by a decent 0.4% in Q4 2014, driven by a rebound in household spending and another solid quarter from investment. This pushed growth ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Spain by Oxford Economics
The breakdown for Q4 2014 GDP in Spain showed an even stronger private sector dynamic than we had anticipated. This has led us to nudge ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Kazakhstan by Oxford Economics
Pressure is building for a further KZT devaluation as the economy is being hit hard by low oil prices and the plunging Russian rouble. Moreover, ...
See all reports like this >>

More Malaysia International Trade reports

International Strategic Analysis: Malaysia - ISA Country Report by ISA (International Strategic Analysis)
International Strategic Analysis: Malaysia - ISA Country Report - This report contains detailed forecasts and analysis for Malaysia, including trade and investment analysis, economic forecasts, ...
Country Risk Service Malaysia February 2015 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Risk Service is a comprehensive two-year forecasting service that monitors risks in 100 key emerging markets. It is designed for commercial bankers, institutional investors ...
Country Forecast Malaysia February 2015 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Forecasts focus on the key factors affecting a country's political and economic outlook and its business environment five years ahead. Each report covers an ...
Country Report Malaysia February 2015 by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...
See all reports like this >>

 

SELECT A LICENSE

    Online Download  USD 175  
    Global Site License  USD 438  
 
US: 800.298.5699
Int'l: +1.240.747.3093
 

Share this report


    Other tasks

     
     
    Join Alert Me now!
    Receive bi-weekly email alerts on new market research

    Sign up today!