Home > Back to Publisher > Report Information

Luxembourg: Country Economic Forecast: 24 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 24, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6775388

Abstract Table of Contents Search inside this report Related Reports

Countries covered: Luxembourg

Our growth estimates for 2011-12 have been cut to only about 1% after the deterioration of Eurozone conditions since mid-2011 and downward revision of data from 2008. Lower financial inflows and industrial exports in Q4 are expected to have subdued the Q3 upturn in activity and, with previously strong consumer demand flagging, there will be little to drive expansion in H1 2012. To lessen the danger of recession, the government will continue to run fiscal deficits in 2012-13, aiming to return to surplus after 2014. These will enable tax cuts to boost export-oriented business, as well as raising domestic demand, and will avoid politically contentious efforts to reduce public welfare and pension costs at a time when political stability is important for financial confidence. Inflation stayed well above the Eurozone average in Q4, but will drop towards it in 2012 as the effects of last year's import price rises (especially for energy) fade. While not significantly affecting financial sector competitiveness, wage and price rises have led to a decline in industrial production and exports since Q3 2010 and the wider visible trade gap will shrink the current account surplus in 2012. Small fiscal deficits and external surplus ensure retention of a top credit rating, which will help financial sector recovery in 2012 as well as keeping deficit financing costs down. Growth prospects improve in 2013-14 as banking starts to recover, boosting service sector growth despite some erosion of current financial and retail tax advantages.

Luxembourg:: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

More Luxembourg International Trade Reports

Luxembourg By-Country Industry Forecast: 19 Mar 2012 by Oxford Economics
Luxembourg: Key Features Broad Country and Industry Coverage. The service covers 68 countries across Europe, Asia, the Americas, the Middle East and Africa, where ...

Country Report Luxembourg 1st Quarter 2012 by Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...

Country Report Luxembourg 1st Quarter 2012 Updater by Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...

Luxembourg By-Country Industry Forecast: 05 Dec 2011 by Oxford Economics
Luxembourg: Key Features Broad Country and Industry Coverage. The service covers 68 countries across Europe, Asia, the Americas, the Middle East and Africa, where 85% ...

Country Report Luxembourg 4th Quarter 2011 by Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...

See all reports like this >>

More Luxembourg Reports

D&B Country RiskLine Report: Luxembourg by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
This D&B Country RiskLine Report will help you analyze the risks, opportunities and likely payment delays when doing business in this country. It includes ...

D&B Country Report: Luxembourg by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
D&B Country Report. Comprehensive information for evaluating risks and opportunities when trading or investing in this country. Providing critical information and analysis on ...

The Economic Competitiveness of Luxembourg: Financials Returns, Labor Productivity and International Gaps by Icon Group International, Inc.
Is Luxembourg competitive? With the globalization of markets, the increased mobility of corporate assets, and the need for productive human resources, this question has ...

See all reports like this >>

Luxembourg: Country Economic Forecast: 24 Jan 2012

Share this report

Other tasks

Research Assistance

Related Markets

International Trade Reports

Free Alert Me service