Lithuania: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Still the second-fastest growing EU economy after strong Q1 industrial performance, Lithuania can return to its pre-recession 5-6% growth trend from 2014 as stronger exports and capital inflows prompt a revival of domestic investment. The upturn will be further fuelled by the prospects of euro adoption, increasingly likely in 2015, which will boost FDI and enable interest rate cuts despite the continuing fiscal deficit. Inflation and the fiscal deficit remain too high for Eurozone entry in 2014, and their reduction could be further delayed by monetary relaxation from 2016. But this risk is kept low by continued spare capacity and productivity growth that prevented any fall in unemployment in Q1. The forecast of strong growth with moderate inflation in 2014-16 takes account of rising inward investment attracted by Eurozone entry prospects and enabling the financing of a wider current account deficit. A pick-up in exports from next year, and import substitution (extending to energy supply), will help constrain the deterioration in the current account. There remain short-term risks to growth if Eurozone recovery is delayed, and longer-term risks from easier credit conditions after euro adoption. These could trigger an upturn in inflation and a wider external deficit unless countered by faster fiscal tightening; but conditions still favour an investment upturn driving stronger real growth.