The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Recovery of exports to the Eurozone and faster investment growth from 2014 will lift GDP growth back above 4% next year, from an expected 3.8% in 2013 and keep it well above the EU average to 2017. Inflation will also pick up next year due to energy price adjustments and faster wage growth; but with the headline rate staying in the 2-2.5% range, trade sector cost reductions achieved in 2009-12 will be largely retained. Faster growth will cause the current account deficit to widen to 2-2.5% of GDP in 2014-17, making growth more dependent on continued inward investment. Eurozone entry and improving infrastructure will deliver the necessary FDI rise, provided increases in labour costs continue to be matched by productivity improvement. The government’s commitment to income tax cuts before the 2015 election will mean that a fiscal deficit continues through the forecast period, adding to inflationary pressures in 2014-15. However, public debt remains low enough to prevent the extra borrowing from raising private sector debt costs, and the deficit will be low enough by 2015 to leave room for fiscal stabilisation in response to any financial or external shocks. Financial instability risks will be substantially lowered by access to the Eurozone stability mechanism, despite ongoing concern about ‘hot’ capital inflows to the banking system. Submission to ECB monetary policy from 2014 will ensure that low borrowing costs sustain investment recovery, but renewed property market overheating remains a risk.