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Kuwait: Country Economic Forecast: 06 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 6, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6748378

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Countries covered: Kuwait

A new government has been sworn in with a new premier, Sheikh Jaber. Parliamentary elections are now set for 2 February. But the power struggle between the 50-member parliament and a government still dominated by the al-Sabah family is unlikely to be resolved without political reform. This is bad news for much-needed and already heavily delayed economic reforms and various oil and infrastructure projects. Growth is now slowing due to weakness in key markets, including the EU, US and Japan, lower oil prices and the impact of political instability. GDP growth is forecast to slow to 3.9% in 2012 from an estimated 4.8% in 2011. Oil production is expected to stabilise around current levels, rising by some 5% in 2012 after an 11% rise in 2011. Consumer prices were flat in November, pushing annual inflation down to a 16-month low of 4.2%. Inflation has been falling steadily since last May, in part because of lower imported inflation, and we expect it to have averaged 4.8% in 2011. While food and commodity prices will fall in 2012, other factors, including fiscal and monetary policy loosening, will keep overall inflation around current levels - we expect it to average 4.5% in 2012. With merchandise exports expected to have jumped by some 42% in 2011 on surging oil prices, the current account surplus is also likely to have risen sharply, to about US$63bn (39% of GDP) from US$36.8bn in 2010. For 2012, lower oil prices are forecast to cut the surplus to some US$54bn.

Kuwait:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country
One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Kuwait: Country Economic Forecast: 06 Jan 2012

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