The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
The parliamentary elections on 27 July, the sixth in seven years, were boycotted by the main Islamist opposition but did result in a somewhat more balanced and inclusive National Assembly than its predecessors. The new government is headed by Sheikh Jaber for the fifth time since his appointment in November 2011. Despite some optimism expressed by the markets, history suggests that political paralysis and instability will continue to a significant degree. Oil production is reported to have dipped marginally in July and has remained broadly unchanged through the first seven months of the year. With oil output seen rising just 1% this year, we expect 2013 GDP growth to slow to around 3.6%. A continued lack of oil development means that the capacity target of 4m b/d in 2020 is no longer viable. Growth in bank lending to the private sector accelerated to 4.3% in May its highest since September 2012. It has been lifted by the maintenance of very low interest rates, which have been held down to stimulate lending and non-oil growth and also to maintain the currency peg (which is dominated by the US$ but also includes the euro and yen) and discourage inflows of ‘hot’ money. With US rates likely to remain unchanged until at least mid-2015, we expect the discount rate will remain at 2% over the same period.