Kenya: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
We forecast GDP growth of 5.5-6% in 2013, with stronger agricultural output and inflows of FDI (related to oil exploration) offsetting the impact of EU recession on exports and tourism. With political stability seemingly more assured following the March elections, which should help FDI, we expect growth of close to 6% pa in 2014-16. Inflation fell sharply in 2012, enabling the central bank to slash interest rates by 700bp in H2 last year. And although inflation has edged up again, to just over 4% in April, the central bank cut rates by 100bp this month to 8.5%. But the pace of monetary easing is now expected to be more gradual. With export growth modest and imports rising significantly faster, the current account deficit climbed to US$3.3bn in 2011 and then US$4.5bn last year, equal to 11% of GDP. Inflows of FDI mean that the capital account has offset the current account deficit, while IMF funding under its US$500m deal agreed in 2011 continues, bolstering investor confidence, and reserves are US$5.3bn, equal to over four months’ imports. Despite concerns about a repeat of the violence after the 2007 polls, elections in March this year proceeded smoothly, with Uhuru Kenyatta emerging as president. But the political climate may yet be troubled by Kenyatta and his deputy being accused by the ICC of involvement in the bloodshed that followed the 2007 vote, and there are doubts about the commitment to reduce the budget deficit, such as cutting fuel subsidies.