Having posted growth of 7% in 2010, GDP rose 6.5% in Q1 this year. Growth continues to be led by wholesale and retail trade (up 14.3%), communications (14.8%) and transport (6.8%). But industrial production growth slowed to 6%, while both agriculture (up just 1.8%) and construction (up 3.1%) remained weaker. We forecast GDP growth of 6.2% in 2011 overall, with activity driven by surging oil prices (up 42%) and metal prices (27%), government spending and strong growth in key export markets of Russia and China. But growth will be constrained by tighter monetary policy and continuing problems in the corporate and banking sectors. Similar growth of just over 6% is forecast for 2012. Despite two successive months of weaker price rises (of 0.5%), inflation remains high at 8.4% in April. This reflects the impact of higher food costs, which comprise nearly 40% of the CPI basket, as well as the loose monetary policy and problems of absorption. We expect inflation to average 8.7% this year, before slowing to 6.8% in 2012. The current account surplus is forecast to widen from US$4bn or 3.2% of GDP in 2010 to US$22bn (14.4% of GDP) this year. A surplus of US$4.8bn has already been posted in Q1. We expect merchandise exports to increase by some 42% this year as a result of the large boost to oil and metal prices. Merchandise imports will increase a more modest 13%.