Home > Back to Publisher > Report Information

Kazakhstan: Country Economic Forecast: 12 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 12, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6749517

Abstract Table of Contents Search inside this report Related Reports

Countries covered: Kazakhstan

GDP growth slowed a little in H2 under the impact of slower growth in key export markets and weaker oil and metal prices. Even so, GDP is still estimated to have risen 6.7% in 2011, driven by high commodity prices, heavy government spending and continued strong growth in China and Russia. Recovery in the agricultural sector partly offset weak growth in the industrial sector in Q4. Medium-term growth prospects remain favourable, given plans for mining and oil production and strong public and external finances. But for 2012, we expect growth to slow to 5.8%, with oil prices seen falling by 11%, metal prices by 8% and growth in the EU now forecast at about zero. Downside risks are significant given the high dependence on commodity exports, close links to the international financial markets and the Eurozone and continued weakness in the banking sector. Inflation fell for a fourth consecutive month in December to 7.4%, its lowest since October 2010. We expect it to drift a little lower in 2012, to an average of 6.6%, due primarily to weaker global pressures. But loose fiscal and monetary policy will keep domestic inflation pressures quite strong. The current account surplus is estimated to have risen to US$11.8bn in 2011 due to a 46% surge in merchandise exports. A surplus of about US$2bn is forecast in 2012.

Kazakhstan:: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

More Kazakhstan International Trade Reports

Kazakhstan - ISA Country Report by ISA (International Strategic Analysis)
This report contains detailed forecasts and analysis for Kazakhstan, including trade and investment analysis, economic forecasts, political risk assessments and demographic trend analysis. Each ...

Kazakhstan: Country Economic Forecast: 25 Apr 2012 by Oxford Economics
Economic data for Q1 confirm that the pace of economic activity has slowed, with mining output down 0.2%, construction down 0.7% and a sharp 5.1% ...

Kazakhstan - ISA Country Report by ISA (International Strategic Analysis)
This report contains detailed forecasts and analysis for Kazakhstan, including trade and investment analysis, economic forecasts, political risk assessments and demographic trend analysis. Each ...

Kazakhstan: Country Economic Forecast: 19 Mar 2012 by Oxford Economics
GDP growth is forecast to slow to 5.8% this year from an upwardly revised 7.5% in 2011. High frequency indicators show notable weakness in mining, ...

Kazakhstan - ISA Country Report by ISA (International Strategic Analysis)
This report contains detailed forecasts and analysis for Kazakhstan, including trade and investment analysis, economic forecasts, political risk assessments and demographic trend analysis. Each ...

See all reports like this >>

More Kazakhstan Reports

D&B Country RiskLine Report: Kazakhstan by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
This D&B Country RiskLine Report will help you analyze the risks, opportunities and likely payment delays when doing business in this country. It includes ...

Country Report Kazakhstan January 2011 by Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...

D&B Country Report: Kazakhstan by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
D&B Country Report. Comprehensive information for evaluating risks and opportunities when trading or investing in this country. Providing critical information and analysis on ...

The Economic Competitiveness of Kazakhstan: Financials Returns, Labor Productivity and International Gaps by Icon Group International, Inc.
Is Kazakhstan competitive? With the globalization of markets, the increased mobility of corporate assets, and the need for productive human resources, this question has ...

World Markets Report: Kazakhstan by DRI-WEFA
This report (released semi-annually) covers all major economic and political issues for Kazakhstan, and how they affect the ten-year economic forecast. An executive summary ...

See all reports like this >>

Kazakhstan: Country Economic Forecast: 12 Jan 2012

Share this report

Other tasks

Research Assistance

Related Markets

International Trade Reports

Free Alert Me service