The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Kazakhstan: Country Economic Forecast: 22 Apr 2013
GDP rose by 4.5% in Q1, but with significant divergence in sectoral performances. Industrial output was up 1.9% and services grew strongly, but construction and agriculture continued to stagnate. Combined with weaker-than-expected growth in China, Russia and the EU, we have lowered our 2013 growth forecast slightly to 5.7% from 6% previously. We expect growth to accelerate from next year, rising to 7.5% in 2014 and then just under 7% a year in 2015-17. The main factor will be surging oil production from the giant US$46bn Kashagan offshore oil field. Strengthening global growth and policy support will also be important. Inflation fell back to 6.8% in March from February's 14-month high of 7% thanks to lower food inflation and a sharp decline in communications prices. But inflation is still forecast at 7% in both 2013 and 2014 which is in the middle of the 6-8% target range. We expect the authorities to leave the policy rate unchanged at its post-independence low of 5.5%, to focus on stimulating growth and bank lending. From a revised 3.8% of GDP in 2012, we anticipate that the current account surplus will narrow further to just 1.8% of GDP in 2013, as a result primarily of a 5% fall in oil prices. Thereafter the surplus will widen gradually as oil output growth increases.