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Jordan: Country Economic Forecast: 18 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 18, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6771708

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Countries covered: Jordan

GDP increased by 2.6% on the year in Q3, slightly stronger than the outturns in Q1 and Q2. Growth was driven by manufacturing, financial and business services, transport and agriculture. But a weaker Q4 will lead to growth of 2.3% for 2011 overall. In 2012, we expect growth to accelerate marginally to 2.7% aided by continued growth in government spending and GCC aid. Yet the large fiscal expansion in response to the Arab Spring and local protests threatens economic stability in this heavily aid-dependent, debt-burdened and open economy. The budget deficit is expected to have been 6.2% of GDP in 2011, which would have been worse but for a big rise in foreign grants. Inflation continued to fall in Q4, dropping to 3.3% in October and 3.6% in November, the lowest since August 2010. Inflation is likely to fall a little further due to favourable base effects and the impact of weaker global food, oil and cotton prices. An appreciating US$ will also restrain domestic inflationary pressures driven by continued fiscal expansion, including higher public sector wages. Inflation is forecast at 3.7% in 2012 after an estimated 4.4% in 2011. Based on nine-month data, we estimate that the current account deficit widened to about US$2bn or 7.4% of GDP in 2011. This reflects the impact of higher oil imports and lower tourism revenues and remittances. A similar deficit is forecast for 2012.

Jordan:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Jordan: Country Economic Forecast: 18 Jan 2012

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