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Japan: Country Economic Forecast: 17 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 17, 2012
11 Pages - SKU: OFE6769227

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Countries covered: Japan

Japan's GDP is likely to have shrunk in 2011Q4, with the rebound from natural disasters earlier in the year running out of steam. GDP for the whole year is estimated to have contracted by around 1%. Industrial activity has been volatile in recent months, in part reflecting external factors such as floods in Thailand. But the underlying picture remains of a sector under pressure, with dwindling orders resulting from the slowdown in the global and regional economy. Against this background, investment activity remains weak. Business investment fell in 2011Q3 for the fourth straight quarter and government investment is likely to have declined in 2011 despite the reconstruction needs resulting from last March's natural disasters. Consumer indicators have also fluctuated but, overall, look subdued. Retail sales were weak in November and the labour market is not supportive with cash earnings continuing to decline and employment broadly flat. We forecast a rise in consumer spending of just 1.5% in 2012. Our forecast now looks for GDP growth of 1.4% in 2012, rising to 3.1% in 2013. But downside risks are substantial, especially given the international financial situation and the uncertainties in China. We expect the authorities to continue to hold down the yen through intervention and further stimulus measures may also be needed.

Japan:: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Japan: Country Economic Forecast: 17 Jan 2012

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