Japan: Country Economic Forecast: 08 Feb 2012

Oxford Economics
February 8, 2012
11 Pages - SKU: OFE6800402
Countries covered: Japan

We estimate that Japan's GDP fell by 0.5% in 2011Q4, resulting in a drop of 1% for the year as a whole and leaving GDP more than 4% below its peak level of 2008Q1. The Q4 slump can in part be put down to further external shocks, including the flooding in Thailand, and manufacturers' forecasts suggest some rebound from these setbacks in 2012Q1. But the underlying fundamentals still point to growth staying sluggish over the next year. Consumer spending remains weak, with wage growth stagnant, and investment spending, including residential investment, is also still subdued. This leaves Japan heavily dependent on external demand, but recent trends here have also been discouraging. Japan's export growth has lagged behind growth in its key export markets, with further downside risks in the shape of the Eurozone financial crisis and a possible sharper slowdown in China. Although we forecast GDP growth at 1.3% this year, this would still leave a substantial output gap of 3% of GDP, maintaining deflationary pressures in the economy. The fiscal situation remains too precarious to allow any significant stimulus, leaving monetary policy to bear the burden of supporting the economy. This year could see Japan shifting from merely halting yen appreciation to encouraging depreciation.



More International Trade reports by Oxford Economics

Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - TaiwanTaiwan GDP surprised on the upside in Q2 as private consumption rebounded after weakness in Q1 while export volumes continued to ...
Country Economic Forecasts - India by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - IndiaThere was widespread optimism that the new government would be able to turn around India’s economic fortunes.Although the BJP government has ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - EurozoneThe Eurozone’s already-insipid recovery slowed further in the second quarter of the year, with quarterly GDP growth dipping from 0.3% in ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Canada by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - CanadaThe economy speeded up in May, with the monthly measure of GDP rising by 0.4% on the month.This followed a subdued ...
See all reports like this >>

More Japan International Trade reports

Country Economic Forecasts - Japan by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - JapanThe Japanese economy contracted by 1.7% in Q2 as households sharply cut back spending in the wake of April’s consumption tax ...
International Strategic Analysis: Japan - ISA Country Report by ISA (International Strategic Analysis)
International Strategic Analysis: Japan - ISA Country Report - This report contains detailed forecasts and analysis for Japan, including trade and investment analysis, economic forecasts, ...
Country Forecast Japan August 2014 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Forecasts focus on the key factors affecting a country's political and economic outlook and its business environment five years ahead. Each report covers an ...
Country Report Japan August 2014 by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...
See all reports like this >>

More Japan reports

D&B Country Report: Japan by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
D&B Country Report. Comprehensive information for evaluating risks and opportunities when trading or investing in this country. Providing critical information and analysis on ...
See all reports like this >>

 

SELECT A LICENSE

    Online Download  USD 175  
    Global Site License  USD 438  
 
US: 800.298.5699
Int'l: +1.240.747.3093
 

Share this report


    Other tasks

     
     
    Join Alert Me now!
    Receive bi-weekly email alerts on new market research

    Sign up today!