Japan: Country Economic Forecast: 08 Feb 2012

Japan: Country Economic Forecast: 08 Feb 2012

February 8, 2012
11 Pages - SKU: OFE6800402
License type:
Online Download      US $175.00
Global Site License      US $438.00
Countries covered: Japan

We estimate that Japan's GDP fell by 0.5% in 2011Q4, resulting in a drop of 1% for the year as a whole and leaving GDP more than 4% below its peak level of 2008Q1. The Q4 slump can in part be put down to further external shocks, including the flooding in Thailand, and manufacturers' forecasts suggest some rebound from these setbacks in 2012Q1. But the underlying fundamentals still point to growth staying sluggish over the next year. Consumer spending remains weak, with wage growth stagnant, and investment spending, including residential investment, is also still subdued. This leaves Japan heavily dependent on external demand, but recent trends here have also been discouraging. Japan's export growth has lagged behind growth in its key export markets, with further downside risks in the shape of the Eurozone financial crisis and a possible sharper slowdown in China. Although we forecast GDP growth at 1.3% this year, this would still leave a substantial output gap of 3% of GDP, maintaining deflationary pressures in the economy. The fiscal situation remains too precarious to allow any significant stimulus, leaving monetary policy to bear the burden of supporting the economy. This year could see Japan shifting from merely halting yen appreciation to encouraging depreciation.

More International Trade reports by Oxford Economics

Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - SwitzerlandThe latest national accounts release suggested slightly different growth dynamics in 2013 than we had previously assumed. First, quarterly GDP growth ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Norway by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - NorwayMainland GDP, which excludes the oil sector, grew at a healthy pace (0.6% on the quarter) in Q4 2013, taking its ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Algeria by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - AlgeriaGDP growth is expected to pick up to about 3.5% this year, despite political uncertainties, as gas output and exports recover ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - KuwaitAgainst a background of improved political stability, aided by the non-participation of the opposition in parliamentary elections, there has been steady ...
See all reports like this >>

More Japan International Trade reports

Japan - ISA Country Report by ISA (International Strategic Analysis)
Japan - ISA Country Report - This report contains detailed forecasts and analysis for Japan, including trade and investment analysis, economic forecasts, political risk assessments ...
Country Forecast Japan April 2014 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Forecasts focus on the key factors affecting a country's political and economic outlook and its business environment five years ahead. Each report covers an ...
Country Report Japan April 2014 by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Japan by Industry Experts
Country Economic Forecasts - JapanGDP growth in Q4 proved disappointing, at just 0.2% on the quarter. However, in our view the headline figure understates the ...
See all reports like this >>

More Japan reports

D&B Country Report: Japan by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
D&B Country Report. Comprehensive information for evaluating risks and opportunities when trading or investing in this country. Providing critical information and analysis on ...
See all reports like this >>