Japan: Country Economic Forecast: 18 Apr 2013

Oxford Economics
April 18, 2013
11 Pages - SKU: OFE5027237
Countries covered: Japan

Activity data for Q1 were mixed. Industrial output growth was disappointing in January and February but the March manufacturing PMI reached the 50-mark for the first time since May 2012. Meanwhile, consumer spending held up quite well at the start of 2013, suggesting GDP growth of around 0.6% on the quarter. As 2013 proceeds we expect the economy to gather strength on the back of fiscal and monetary stimulus, the latter having been considerably increased at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in early April. We now expect GDP growth of 1% this year and around 2.5% in both 2014 and 2015. The significant weakening of the yen to nearly JPY100/US$ will support exports, and we expect a further depreciation to JPY114 by end-2015. Our forecast now also incorporates the new BoJ asset purchase plan, which will see its balance sheet increase by some 25% of GDP over the next two years. This will hold down interest rates and boost domestic spending. The BoJ is now targeting a 2% inflation rate. Our forecast suggests it will fall slightly short of this, but our new long-term inflation forecast of 1.6% pa is a significant upgrade from last month's figure of around 1%.



More International Trade reports by Oxford Economics

Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - TaiwanTaiwan GDP surprised on the upside in Q2 as private consumption rebounded after weakness in Q1 while export volumes continued to ...
Country Economic Forecasts - India by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - IndiaThere was widespread optimism that the new government would be able to turn around India’s economic fortunes.Although the BJP government has ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - EurozoneThe Eurozone’s already-insipid recovery slowed further in the second quarter of the year, with quarterly GDP growth dipping from 0.3% in ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Canada by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - CanadaThe economy speeded up in May, with the monthly measure of GDP rising by 0.4% on the month.This followed a subdued ...
See all reports like this >>

More Japan International Trade reports

Japan Business Forecast Report Q1 2015 by Business Monitor International
Japan Business Forecast Report Q1 2015Core ViewsSino-Japanese relations look set to improve over the coming months,as Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe makes a renewed push for ...
Country Forecast Japan October 2014 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Forecasts focus on the key factors affecting a country's political and economic outlook and its business environment five years ahead. Each report covers an ...
Country Report Japan October 2014 by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Japan by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - JapanThe Japanese economy contracted by 1.7% in Q2 as households sharply cut back spending in the wake of April’s consumption tax ...
See all reports like this >>

More Japan reports

D&B Country Report: Japan by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
D&B Country Report. Comprehensive information for evaluating risks and opportunities when trading or investing in this country. Providing critical information and analysis on ...
See all reports like this >>

 

SELECT A LICENSE

    Online Download  USD 175  
    Global Site License  USD 438  
 
US: 800.298.5699
Int'l: +1.240.747.3093
 

Share this report


    Other tasks

     
     
    Join Alert Me now!
    Receive bi-weekly email alerts on new market research

    Sign up today!