The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Activity data for Q1 were mixed. Industrial output growth was disappointing in January and February but the March manufacturing PMI reached the 50-mark for the first time since May 2012. Meanwhile, consumer spending held up quite well at the start of 2013, suggesting GDP growth of around 0.6% on the quarter. As 2013 proceeds we expect the economy to gather strength on the back of fiscal and monetary stimulus, the latter having been considerably increased at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in early April. We now expect GDP growth of 1% this year and around 2.5% in both 2014 and 2015. The significant weakening of the yen to nearly JPY100/US$ will support exports, and we expect a further depreciation to JPY114 by end-2015. Our forecast now also incorporates the new BoJ asset purchase plan, which will see its balance sheet increase by some 25% of GDP over the next two years. This will hold down interest rates and boost domestic spending. The BoJ is now targeting a 2% inflation rate. Our forecast suggests it will fall slightly short of this, but our new long-term inflation forecast of 1.6% pa is a significant upgrade from last month's figure of around 1%.