Italy: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Q1 national accounts data confirmed our expectation that the recession would ease somewhat in early 2013, as GDP declined 2.3% year-on-year compared to a 2.8% fall in 2012 Q4. However, GDP did drop another 0.5% on the quarter in Q1. A coalition government representing the main right and left-wing parties was formed on 28 April, ending more than two months of political stalemate after the general election. The new prime minister, Mr Enrico Letta (deputy secretary of the left-wing Democratic Party) promised to curb austerity and to push through growth-boosting measures. The government has already suspended the payment of the property tax on main residences due in June. Markets were buoyed by the resolution of the political uncertainty, with 10-year government bond yields stabilising below 4% in May. The economy is still expected to shrink further in the short term, however. Business confidence in the manufacturing sector dropped its the lowest level for seven months in April. Moreover, the latest bank lending survey pointed to a further tightening of credit conditions in mid-2013. As a result, investment is expected to shrink by around 3.5% in 2013. Overall, our forecast profile for GDP has not changed this month, with a 1.8% decline in output still expected this year, with a very modest 0.4% rise in 2014.