Israel: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Annualised Q1 GDP growth of 2.8% confirms that the economy continues to outgrow its main trading partners due to strong consumer spending, but also that growth will stay below trend until EU and US recoveries drive stronger exports from 2014. Although the upturn will also raise energy import prices, Israel will now be more shielded from these by the imminent start of its own gas production. Continued inflation slowdown and currency appreciation, and the announcement of fiscal tightening for 2013-14, enabled two further 25bp interest rate cuts in May that will help to boost investment and spending. But the planned spending cuts and tax rises following efforts to tame the overshooting budget deficit will be hard to enforce. Although inflation is set to pick up in 2014 from the six-year low achieved in 2013Q2, the headline rate should stay below 3% reflecting stronger production growth and absorption of excess demand by imports, as well as greater insulation against energy price shocks. However, difficulty of delivering the proposed budget tightening means an upside risk to inflation, which could rebound against growth by forcing a tighter monetary stance. Likud’s coalition (formed in March) with the new centrist party has survived some early hard decisions, but will be tested over its budget plans and attempts to revise some of the previous coalition’s more conservative policies. External instability and security threats, which could inflame internal political tensions, remain a downside risk to growth.