The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Irish GDP fell by 0.1% on the quarter in 2012Q4. This was slightly better than expected and was underpinned by rising consumer spending as well as a positive contribution from stockbuilding. In 2012 as a whole, GDP increased by 0.9%. However, although consumption rose by 1% on the quarter in Q4, the outlook is still subdued. A weak labour market, high household indebtedness and fiscal austerity are likely to weigh on consumer spending; indeed, retail sales fell noticeably in January. Exports are the main driver of growth in Ireland. But given that the growth outlook in the UK and the Eurozone - Ireland's main trading partners - remains weak in the near term, export growth, which fell from 5% in 2011 to 2.9% in 2012, is likely to slow further to 2.3% in 2013. But Ireland appears on track to return to a sustainable growth path in the medium term. The debt agency issued 10-year government bonds for the first time since the bailout was requested in December 2010 and in 2012 the government undershot its budget deficit target by almost 1% point of GDP. Risks to the forecast are broadly balanced. While internal risks stemming from Ireland's banking sector have eased considerably, Ireland remains highly vulnerable to negative developments in the Eurozone, for example in the event of a further deterioration in Cyprus or Greece.