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Iraq: Country Economic Forecast: 30 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 30, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6788876

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Countries covered: Iraq

Although the number of civilian deaths in the first half of December was the lowest in a year, sectarian violence has escalated since the final US troop withdrawal. At the same time, there have been deepening divisions within the ruling coalition, leading to fears that these might aggravate tensions between Shi'ites and Sunnis, with Prime Minister Maliki's response to these tensions doing nothing to help the situation. Oil output remained close to 2.7m b/d in December and is estimated to have risen by 13% in 2011 overall. And with oil prices up by an average of close to 40% last year, booming oil revenues have driven heavy state spending. As a result, GDP growth is still seen estimated at about 10% in 2011. Further rises in oil output will underpin GDP growth in the next few years, but slowing from the 2011 pace as oil prices weaken somewhat. The government hopes that oil output will rise to 3.4m b/d by end 2012, but this looks over-optimistic. State spending on construction and infrastructure projects will remain high, but security concerns and low foreign investor confidence will continue to hamper revival of private sector activity. We still expect a small current account surplus for 2011 as exports will have risen by about 45%, driven by higher oil output and the sharp rise in the average world oil price. But an expected 6% drop in oil prices and rising imports of goods and services may see a return to small deficit in 2012.

Iraq:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Iraq: Country Economic Forecast: 30 Jan 2012

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