Iraq: Country Economic Forecast: 05 Dec 2011

Oxford Economics
December 5, 2011
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6716986
Countries covered: Iraq

Oil output remained close to 2.7m b/d in October and, with a further pick-up likely in the final two months of the year, will rise by about 14% in 2011 overall. And with oil prices up by an average of close to 40% this year, oil revenues are booming, in turn driving heavy state spending. As a result, GDP growth is still seen accelerating sharply to about 10% in 2011 from just 1% in 2010. Further rises in oil output will underpin solid GDP growth in the next few years, but slowing from the 2011 pace as oil prices weaken somewhat. Official projections for oil output have been revised down, with government hoping for 8m b/d by 2017 rather than 12m b/d but even this may prove over-optimistic. State expenditure on major construction and infrastructure projects will remain high, but security concerns – as the US completes its troop withdrawal by end-year – and low foreign investor confidence will hamper revival of private sector activity. A small current account surplus is expected in 2011 as exports rise by about 45%, driven by higher oil output and the sharp rise in the average world oil price. But an expected 12% drop in oil prices and rising imports of goods and services may see a return to deficit in 2012. Strong oil revenues could also yield a small budget surplus in 2011 as spending falls behind schedule and high oil prices boost revenues more than officially projected. Another small surplus is likely in 2012.

More International Trade reports by Oxford Economics

Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - TaiwanTaiwan GDP surprised on the upside in Q2 as private consumption rebounded after weakness in Q1 while export volumes continued to ...
Country Economic Forecasts - India by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - IndiaThere was widespread optimism that the new government would be able to turn around India’s economic fortunes.Although the BJP government has ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - EurozoneThe Eurozone’s already-insipid recovery slowed further in the second quarter of the year, with quarterly GDP growth dipping from 0.3% in ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Canada by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - CanadaThe economy speeded up in May, with the monthly measure of GDP rising by 0.4% on the month.This followed a subdued ...
See all reports like this >>

More Iraq International Trade reports

Business Forecast Report - Iraq Q4 2014 by Business Monitor International
Business Forecast Report - Iraq Q4 2014Core ViewsRisks of a return to full-blown civil war are elevated following thetakeover of jihadist group Islamic state (IS) ...
Country Risk Service Iraq August 2014 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Risk Service is a comprehensive two-year forecasting service that monitors risks in 100 key emerging markets. It is designed for commercial bankers, institutional investors ...
Country Report Iraq August 2014 by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - IraqThe situation in Iraq remains volatile since the capture of large parts of the country by ISIS.Government forces appear to have ...
See all reports like this >>

More Iraq reports

D&B Country RiskLine Report: Iraq by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
This D&B Country RiskLine Report will help you analyze the risks, opportunities and likely payment delays when doing business in this country. It includes ...
D&B Country Report: Iraq by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
D&B Country Report. Comprehensive information for evaluating risks and opportunities when trading or investing in this country. Providing critical information and analysis on ...
See all reports like this >>



    Online Download  USD 175  
    Global Site License  USD 438  
US: 800.298.5699
Int'l: +1.240.747.3093

Share this report

    Other tasks

    Join Alert Me now!
    Receive bi-weekly email alerts on new market research

    Sign up today!