The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
A 12% rise in oil output last year, to around 3.2m b/d in Q4 (making Iraq the second largest producer in OPEC), drove annual GDP growth to about 10%. And with oil prices remaining above US$100pb after their 40% surge in 2011, high oil revenues enabled heavy state spending to continue. Further rises in oil output and state spending will underpin solid GDP growth in the next few years. The official target is for output to rise to 3.7m b/d by end-2013, just below the record high set back in 1979, with 4m b/d targeted for 2014. But poor infrastructure and delays to reforms needed to attract more FDI into the oil sector suggest that official output goals may be ambitious. Medium-term growth will also be held back by structural constraints on non-oil output, which (even where privatised) depends heavily on public contracts and is stifled by regulation that fuels corruption. Unmet needs for investment to restore urban infrastructure and revive agriculture and employment keep our medium-term GDP growth forecast at 6%, well below the central bank projection of about 12% pa in 2013-16. With oil prices at US$110pb, strong exports lifted the current account surplus in 2012, and solid surpluses are forecast for the coming years. Public finances have also improved, with small budget surpluses expected, and inflation has slowed. Social unrest persists and sectarian violence is rising again, amid fears that the Syrian crisis may be enabling hardline Sunnis to step up opposition to the fragile government.