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Hong Kong: Country Economic Forecast: 24 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 24, 2012
9 Pages - SKU: OFE6775385

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Countries covered: Hong Kong

Having slowed significantly in August and September, when household wealth was being hit by sharp falls in the equity markets, retail sales volume growth was more robust at 16.9% in November as the markets started to stabilise. But with the property market still weakening, private consumption growth will slow significantly this year, to only about 4% from close to 8% in 2011. The background for external demand remains weak by comparison with 2010. The ongoing European debt crisis is affecting global demand and counter-inflationary policies on the mainland are reducing China's demand for imports. Although the latest PMIs do not suggest any further deterioration, they point to relatively sluggish conditions for industry and exports. Inflation at 5.7% in December is still under pressure from high private rents and nominal wages, but it is showing signs of moderating as these factors start to ease. A significant slowing in the real estate market in response to government measures and moderating demand is expected to feed through into private rents. And inflationary pressures from nominal wage growth, which was over 9% in 2011Q3, are also expected to lessen; in the face of weaker demand, firms will become more wary about hiring and unemployment is expected to rise in the coming months. The deepening global slowdown will limit growth prospects this year; we expect GDP growth to slow to 3.5% in 2012 from an estimated 4.9% last year.

Hong Kong:: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Hong Kong: Country Economic Forecast: 24 Jan 2012

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