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Guyana: Country Economic Forecast: 01 Nov 2011

4 Pages Oxford Economics November 01, 2011 SKU: OFE6655621

Strong growth in gold and bauxite output - up 15% and 39% respectively on the year in H1 2011, driven by high commodity prices and increased investment - was supported by rises of 30% in sugar and 23% in rice as a result of good weather conditions. There were substantial declines in forestry and diamond output but overall GDP growth averaged 5.9% in H1. The generally strong growth in key commodities led to exports rising 34% in H1. But the much higher level of imports grew by over 25%, boosted by rising fuel prices, leading to a widening of the current account deficit, which is now expected to be equal to 10% of GDP this year. As import prices ease, the gap should narrow in 2012. With high public spending on agriculture and construction, weak performances by public enterprises could widen the fiscal deficit. In the medium term, an expectation of fiscal consolidation is founded on strong tax revenues (tax receipts rose 10.2% in H1 2011) and robust sugar production. Inflation has picked up this year and we expect it to average 4.7%, before falling to 4% in 2012. Higher commodity prices, particularly food, have pushed up inflation, but not to the double-digit levels seen in 2007 and early 2008. With investment in agriculture, gold, oil and gas driving activity, we expect GDP growth of 4.8% this year, before moderating to 4.4% in 2012.

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Guyana: Country Economic Forecast: 01 Nov 2011

Oxford Economics
November 01, 2011

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