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Greece: Country Economic Forecast: 02 Feb 2012

Oxford Economics
February 2, 2012
10 Pages - SKU: OFE6792213

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Countries covered: Greece

Negotiations between officials and private creditors over a voluntary haircut on Greek debt remain slow. Greece and its official lenders have pushed for a low coupon on new discounted bonds, implying NPV losses of around 70% for private creditors. An additional â‚¬130bn in EU/IMF bailout funding is contingent on Greece reaching a deal with private sector creditors. And Athens also has to impose more austerity measures to secure the financing, which are likely to meet with political opposition. But Greece must secure the new bailout funding soon - it faces a large debt refinancing on 20 March. In a worst-case scenario, Greece could be forced into a disorderly default, which would have grave implications for an already weak economy - GDP is forecast to fall by another 6% this year. More bank support would be needed to restore confidence in the sector, and there would be serious hits to consumer and business confidence. Furthermore, the economic and financial pressures created by a disorderly default might make continued Eurozone membership unsustainable. Doubts still persist about Greece's medium-term debt dynamics. Even with near universal participation in the debt swap and the government running large primary surpluses, the debt/GDP ratio will still be well above 100% at the end of the decade. Should Greece's debt burden prove unsustainable, official lenders may need to take a haircut.

Greece:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Greece: Country Economic Forecast: 02 Feb 2012

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