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Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing: 27 Jan 2012

12 Pages Oxford Economics January 27, 2012 SKU: OFE6784682

With the outlook for exports subdued and investment weak, we expect industrial output growth to slow further in 2012 H1. But consumption is taking up the slack and fiscal policy is set to be supportive. As a result, we only expect a relatively modest slowing in growth in 2012 to 8.4% from 9.2% in 2011. But with house prices still falling in December, we remain concerned about the risk of a sharp slowing in the property market leading to strains on local government finances and a hard landing for growth, particularly with the external environment weak. However, central government finances are strong and fiscal transfers could provide a significant cushion in the event of a property bust.

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Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing: 27 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 27, 2012

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