The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
El Salvador: Country Economic Forecast: 03 May 2013
GDP rose a paltry 1.6% last year, affected by weak exports and a severe deceleration in the construction sector. The outlook for this year is no better as recent data point to an ongoing economic slowdown. In January-February, the monthly index of economic activity was down 0.3% on the year, the weakest performance since late 2009, with the construction sector over 6% lower. Even though we expect growth to improve gradually over the coming months, driven by a recovery in agriculture exports and tourism, average GDP growth in 2013 is seen at just 1.2%, reflecting the poor performance in Q1. Next year, we see growth picking up to about 2% on the back of a continued recovery in exports, spurred by stronger demand from the US – El Salvador’s main trade partner. Heavy rains, which damaged crops and agricultural exports, were a factor behind the widening of the current account deficit to 5.3% of GDP in 2012. But if the global recovery gains momentum and the domestic economy only grows slowly, holding down import demand, then the current account deficit should gradually shrink in the next few years to 2.5% of GDP by 2016. As a result of sluggish growth and easing international commodity prices, inflation slowed sharply to just 1.8% last year (and only 0.8% in December), from 5.1% in 2011. This year, inflation has started to rise again, reaching 1.3% in March. For the year as a whole, we expect the rate to average 2.1%, before ticking up to 2.8% pa in the medium term as economic activity gradually firms.