The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
The political and economic crisis continues, with little prospect of the situation improving in the near term. In fact, latest developments have been overwhelmingly negative. There is still no agreement with the IMF over the US$4.8bn loan programme, which is urgently needed to trigger more international aid and boost confidence that the government will be able to implement a credible medium-term economic programme. But an IMF deal is hardly likely when there is no political consensus in a deeply polarised country. Divisions have been worsened by the Morsi government increasing the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in a cabinet reshuffle. Investor and business confidence continues to suffer. The EGP has fallen further, currently at EGP6.96 to the US$ despite continued currency auctions, and we expect further depreciation to perhaps EGP7.15 by end-year. While foreign reserves jumped to US$14.4bn in April, this was only because of a US$2bn deposit from Libya and the underlying trend is still falling. Reserves still cover less than three months’ imports. News that public sector wage rises are accelerating only reinforces the pessimism about the government’s ability to implement fiscal reforms. The budget deficit is likely to fall only slowly from the estimated outturn of close to 12% of GDP in 2012/13. Inflation picked up to 8.1% in April due to higher food and fuel costs. We expect it to average 9% this year and about 10% in 2014.