Home > Back to Publisher > Report Information

Ecuador: Country Economic Forecast: 03 Feb 2012

Oxford Economics
February 3, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6799170

Abstract Table of Contents Search inside this report Related Reports

Countries covered: Ecuador

President Rafael Correa has begun the final year of his current term but has the option to run for re-election in January 2013. He has signalled a decision on this is unlikely before July, although we consider it highly probable he will wish to continue. Meanwhile, Correa is pressing ahead with reforms dominated this year by judicial reform, while he also holds the reins as regards the economy. Buoyed by oil prices and improved domestic demand, GDP growth accelerated to over 9% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2011 from just 3.6% in 2010. Quarterly growth eased to 1.7% in Q3 2011 from 2.3% in Q2 and further slowdown is likely in Q4. Given the uncertain global situation, we expect GDP growth of 3.5% this year. The US$26bn budget for 2012 projects GDP growth at 5.3%, based on an average price for local crude oil of nearly US$80pb, down from almost US$97pb in 2011. As in 2011, a budget deficit is expected (of US$4.2bn) and looks to more funding from China. Inflation was moderate in 2010, at 3.3% at end year, but reached 5.4% by end 2011, driven by food prices despite subsidies to fuel costs. Despite high oil exports (and a US$6bn surplus on the oil account), the trade deficit in January-November fell only slightly to US$1.8bn from US$1.9n a year earlier. And although the current account deficit in Q1-Q3 fell more sharply, to US$627m, we expect the full-year deficit to be close to US$1.5bn in both 2011 and 2012.

Ecuador:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

More Ecuador International Trade Reports

Ecuador: Country Economic Forecast: 01 May 2012 by Oxford Economics
GDP data for 2011 show that annual growth accelerated to 7.8% from 3.6% in 2010, aided by high oil prices and robust local demand. Year-on-year ...

Ecuador - ISA Country Report by ISA (International Strategic Analysis)
This report contains detailed forecasts and analysis for Ecuador, including trade and investment analysis, economic forecasts, political risk assessments and demographic trend analysis. Each ...

Ecuador - ISA Country Report by ISA (International Strategic Analysis)
This report contains detailed forecasts and analysis for Ecuador, including trade and investment analysis, economic forecasts, political risk assessments and demographic trend analysis. Each ...

Ecuador By-Country Industry Forecast: 19 Mar 2012 by Oxford Economics
Ecuador: Key Features Broad Country and Industry Coverage. The service covers 68 countries across Europe, Asia, the Americas, the Middle East and Africa, where ...

Ecuador - ISA Country Report by ISA (International Strategic Analysis)
This report contains detailed forecasts and analysis for Ecuador, including trade and investment analysis, economic forecasts, political risk assessments and demographic trend analysis. Each ...

See all reports like this >>

More Ecuador Reports

D&B Country RiskLine Report: Ecuador by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
This D&B Country RiskLine Report will help you analyze the risks, opportunities and likely payment delays when doing business in this country. It includes ...

Country Report Ecuador January 2011 by Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...

D&B Country Report: Ecuador by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
D&B Country Report. Comprehensive information for evaluating risks and opportunities when trading or investing in this country. Providing critical information and analysis on ...

The 2005 Ecuador Economic and Product Market Databook by Icon Group International, Inc.
Market Potential Estimation Methodology Overview This study covers the outlook products in Ecuador. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or ...

The Economic Competitiveness of Ecuador: Financials Returns, Labor Productivity and International Gaps by Icon Group International, Inc.
Is Ecuador competitive? With the globalization of markets, the increased mobility of corporate assets, and the need for productive human resources, this question has ...

See all reports like this >>

Ecuador: Country Economic Forecast: 03 Feb 2012

Share this report

Other tasks

Research Assistance

Related Markets

International Trade Reports

Free Alert Me service