The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
With the external environment broadly unchanged, we maintain our forecast of zero GDP growth this year and a pick-up to 1.8% in 2014. However, growth could turn out stronger than we expect if the recently-agreed ‘Growth Plan DK’ is implemented decisively. This plan focuses on boosting the business sector by reducing corporate and energy taxes and improving access to financing. Last year’s budget deficit of 4.2% of GDP was below our forecast of 5%. Moreover, with government debt equal to less than 50% of GDP in 2012 (on the Maastricht definition), there is ample leeway to fund the proposed growth package. Markets seem to support this view – interest rates on long-term government debt continued to fall after the announcement of the growth package and at the end of April stood at 1.4%, just 15bp higher than those for Germany. As expected, the ECB cut its policy rate by 0.25% in early May in response to low Eurozone inflation and weak data in the first few months of the year. The Danish central bank has followed suit in order to maintain the peg to the euro, cutting its lending rate by 0.1% whilst leaving other policy rates (already at zero or negative) unchanged. This means that mortgage rates will remain low, taking pressure off household budgets and supporting our expectation of some consumer spending growth this year despite the need to deleverage.