The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
We now expect GDP to fall 0.9% this year, before a return to growth in 2014, as an over-shooting budget deficit forces further public spending restraint and monetary policy stays cautious despite a Q1 decline in inflation. EU accession in July will initially do little to boost inward investment and may worsen the trade balance before the advantages of structural funding, FDI and wider market access start to take effect in 2014. Planned spending cuts are unlikely to reduce the fiscal deficit, which may widen this year due to falling GDP and may also make it harder for the centre-left government to tackle welfare and pension reforms needed to reduce long-term public sector costs. Cuts now extend to capital projects, restraining medium-term growth prospects. Success in financing the fiscal deficit even after credit-rating downgrades lessens the likelihood of a resort to the IMF, but rolling over public debt could become more difficult later this year in the absence of any sign of return to GDP growth. The length of the recession is likely to have weakened supply-side flexibility, limiting medium-term growth to 3-4%. A return to this growth trend is not expected until 2015, when private and public investment start to recover more strongly, helped by lower interest rates and higher inward investment. The return to growth in 2014, seen at about 2%, will remain largely dependent on expansion of exports, and therefore constrained by the pace of the recovery in the Eurozone.