The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
GDP growth slowed to just over 3% in 2013 and, with expansion in the mining sector easing as capacity limits approach, we now expect growth of just 2.5% this year, well below government hopes of 6.4%.
Medium-term prospects remain constrained by a number of factors, including the uncertain political situation (especially given 90-year old President Mugabe’s mounting health problems), the controversial indigenisation process, the reluctance to embrace reforms, lack of capital inflows and very high unemployment.
FDI continues to be hindered by the 51% local ownership rules that have been imposed (with the state now saying it wants 100% local control of mineral resources and land) and by the inability to access IMF funding because of arrears.
Our growth forecast of 3.5% in 2015 and then 4-4.5% a year in 2016-17 relies heavily on continued Chinese-led investment in mining.
But the external deficit remains high, reserves cover less than two weeks’ imports and the political situation remains unpromising.